DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/29 11:11
All Grains Lower at Midday
Corn is 4 to 5 cents lower, soybeans are 6 to 8 cents lower, and wheat is 1
to 6 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 200 points. The dollar
index is 36 points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are
weaker with crude $1.70 lower. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading.
Precious metals are mixed with gold up $16.
Corn trade is 4 to 5 cents lower at midday with broad weakness at midday
keeping trade at the lower end of the recent range ahead of the stocks report
tomorrow. The daily export wire will be watched to see if sales maintain the
recent pace with nothing seen today. Ethanol margins are steady with unleaded
holding near the upper end of the recent range. Basis should see pressure this
week with more bushels coming in to town. Weekly crop progress showed 75%
mature vs. 65% on average, and 15% harvested vs. 16% on average, with 61% good
to excellent and 14% poor to very poor, unchanged. The report tomorrow is
expected to show corn stocks at 2.25 billion bushels. On the December contract,
trade has support at the $3.65 20-day moving average which are below at midday
then the $3.54 lower Bollinger band, with the recent high at $3.78 as
Soybean trade is 6 to 8 cents lower at midday with trade seeing further
harvest pressure and long liquidation ongoing, with export announcements of
100,000 to Mexico. Meal is $3.50 to $4.50 lower and oil is 65 to 75 lower. The
ral remains in the lower end of the range ahead of South American planting
with farmers waiting for seasonal rains while Argentine farmer selling remains
slow, with Brazil heavily sold ahead. Export offers continue to get tighter in
availability as well with meal driving the product complex while strain on
domestic logistics will increase as shipping pace needs move along at a rapid
pace. Weekly crop progress showed 74% dropping leaves vs. 69% on average, with
20% harvested vs. 15% average with 64% good to excellent and 10% poor to very
poor. The stocks report is expected to show 576 million bushels. The November
chart has resistance at the upper Bollinger Band at $10.46 which is also the
fresh high with support the 20-day at $9.93 which we are just below this a.m.,
with the lower Bollinger Band at $9.48 below that.
Wheat trade 2 to 6 cents lower at midday with sideway action ongoing with
trade back into support levels with early gains fading and Chicago trade
leading. Export competitiveness remains about the same with the focus remaining
on Europe dryness along with U.S. plains progress. Kansas City is at a 71-cent
discount to Chicago with spreads wider and back to the recent highs, while
Minneapolis is back to a 23 cent discount with weaker action. Wheat drilling
progress should expand across the plains short term with ok moisture for most
for now but follow up rain lacking overall. Weekly crop progress showed
planting progress at 35% vs 33% on average, with 10% emerged vs. 8% on average.
The stock report is expected to show 2.242 billion bushels with all wheat
production at 1.841 billion bushels. Kansas City December chart resistance is
the fresh high at $5.09, and support is the 20-day at $4.79, which we are just
above with the lower Bollinger Band the next level at $4.61.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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