Paychex Stock Outlook: Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish?
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With a market cap of $56.2 billion, Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) is a leading provider of integrated human capital management solutions, offering payroll, HR, benefits, and insurance services tailored to small and medium-sized businesses. The company delivers customized, technology-driven support to help businesses operate efficiently and remain compliant.
Shares of the Rochester, New York-based company have outpaced the broader market over the past 52 weeks. PAYX has increased 23.8% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied 12.5%. Moreover, shares of Paychex are up 10.9% on a YTD basis, compared to SPX’s 1.3% rise.
Focusing more closely, the payroll processor and human-resources services provider has also outperformed the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLI) 13.6% return over the past 52 weeks.
Paychex stock rose 4.2% on Mar. 26 after the Q3 2025 earnings report, as adjusted EPS of $1.49 narrowly beat the consensus, while revenue of $1.5 billion met the estimate. Despite a 4% rise in expenses tied to acquisition-related costs, adjusted operating income climbed 9% year-over-year to $708.5 million, with the operating margin improving to 45.8%. Investors were further encouraged by the progress on the $4.1 billion acquisition of Paycor, with the regulatory waiting period expiring without objection, clearing the path for closure in April.
For the fiscal year ending in May 2025, analysts expect PAYX’s adjusted EPS to grow 5.7% year-over-year to $4.99. The company's earnings surprise history is promising. It topped the consensus estimates in the last four quarters.
Among the 17 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a “Hold.” That’s based on 14 “Hold” ratings, one “Moderate Sell,” and two “Strong Sells.”
On Mar. 27, Stifel Nicolaus analyst David Grossman reiterated a “Hold" rating on Paychex and assigned a price target of $156.
As of writing, PAYX is trading above the mean price target of $146.64. The Street-high price target of $158 implies a potential upside of 1.4% from the current price levels.
On the date of publication, Sohini Mondal did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.