Obama to GA for Warnock       12/01 06:20

   

   ATLANTA (AP) -- Georgia voters have cast more than 1 million ballots ahead 
of the Dec. 6 U.S. Senate runoff between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and 
Republican challenger Herschel Walker, with Warnock looking to juice an 
apparent Democratic head start in early voting with a visit Thursday from 
Barack Obama.

   The former president will campaign with Warnock on the eve of the final day 
of early voting. The rally, which promises to be the largest event of Warnock's 
four-week runoff blitz, underscores the two parties' different approaches to 
early voting in the final contest of the 2022 election.

   Democrats have employed an all-hands-on-deck push to bank as many votes as 
possible while Republicans, especially Walker, have taken a less aggressive 
approach that could leave the GOP nominee heavily dependent on runoff Election 
Day turnout.

   "I think the turnout we're seeing is good, and I want to encourage people to 
stick with it," Warnock said as he campaigned this week, comparing voting to 
waiting in line at a popular Atlanta lunch spot. "The other day I went to the 
Slutty Vegan, and the line was wrapped around the block, and folks still waited 
and got their sandwiches," he said. "I went and voted yesterday, and it was 
pretty painless."

   Walker, meanwhile, is expected to vote on the runoff's Election Day, as he 
did in November for the midterms.

   Warnock led Walker by about 37,000 votes out of almost 4 million cast in the 
general election but fell short of the majority required under Georgia law. 
That triggered a four-week runoff blitz, with a shorter early voting window 
than occurred during the first round.

   Statewide early voting data, including some weekend and Thanksgiving 
weekdays in certain counties, shows higher overall turnout in the most heavily 
Democratic counties and congressional districts. Still, both parties are 
finding data to tout as they jockey for any advantage in the final contest of 
the 2022 midterm election cycle, and both campaigns agree generally that 
Warnock will lead among early voters, as he did in the first round, while 
Walker will have the advantage in Election Day ballots, as he did in November. 
The respective margins will determine the eventual winner.

   TargetSmart, a Democratic data firm, analyzed the identities of the 
830,000-plus voters who'd cast ballots by the end of Tuesday and concluded that 
Democrats have increased their advantage by 14 percentage points over what it 
was with six days to go before the Nov. 8 election. That analysis did not 
include the 240,000-plus additional ballots cast Wednesday.

   Walker's campaign manager, Scott Paradise, pushed back on notions of 
Democrats' domination. He argued that their advantage comes only because it was 
heavily Democratic metro-area counties that held weekend early voting, while 
more Republican areas waited until the statewide mandatory early voting window 
that began Monday. Republicans had sued, unsuccessfully, in state court trying 
to block Saturday early voting for the runoff.

   Paradise said a Walker campaign analysis found that nine of the 10 counties 
with the highest turnout Monday were counties Walker won in November with a 
combined 70% of the vote. He added that of the state's most populous counties 
-- those with more than 100,000 registered voters -- it was two Republican 
strongholds, Hall and Forsyth, that posted the highest turnout percentages 
Monday. Paradise said those trends reflect high enthusiasm among Republicans.

   Still, Republicans have catching up to do.

   According to state voting data compiled by Ryan Anderson, an independent 
analyst in Atlanta, four of the state's five Democratic-held congressional 
districts had already seen advance turnout through Tuesday of at least 43% of 
the total early vote for the November election, when every Georgia county had 
at least 17 days of early in-person voting. Just one of Georgia's nine 
Republican-held congressional districts had eclipsed that 43% mark.

   Warnock first won the seat as part of concurrent Senate runoffs on Jan. 5, 
2021, when he and Jon Ossoff prevailed over Republican incumbents to give 
Democrats narrow control of the Senate for the start of President Joe Biden's 
tenure. Warnock won a special election and now is seeking a full six-year term.

   This time, Senate control is not in play: Democrats have already secured 50 
seats and have Vice President Kamala Harris' tiebreaking vote. That puts 
pressure on both Warnock's and Walker's campaigns to convince Georgia voters 
that it's worth their time to cast a second ballot, even if the national stakes 
aren't as high.

   Warnock got about 70% of his overall first-round votes from advance voting; 
for Walker, it was about 58%. That translated to an advantage of more than 
256,000 votes for Warnock. Walker answered with an Election Day advantage of 
more than 200,000.

   The senator's campaign, Democratic Party committees and aligned political 
action committees have tailored their voter turnout efforts toward early 
voting. Republicans have countered with their own wide-ranging push, including 
a direct-mail push from one super political action committee featuring Gov. 
Brian Kemp, who got 200,000 more votes than Walker to win a second term 
comfortably.

   Yet Republicans are battling some internal party narratives, including from 
former President Donald Trump, that question some advance voting, especially 
mail-in ballots, pushing some Republicans toward an Election Day ballot. As 
recently as Tuesday, Trump declared on social media that "YOU CAN NEVER HAVE 
FAIR & FREE ELECTIONS WITH MAIL-IN BALLOTS -- NEVER, NEVER NEVER. WON'T AND 
CAN'T HAPPEN!!!"

   Walker himself does not mention early in-person voting or mail-in ballots at 
all as he urges his supporters to vote.

   Democrats, meanwhile, see Obama as a key figure in repeating Warnock's 
advance voting lead, because the former president remains intensely popular 
among core Democrats and has a solid standing among independents.